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the handover of power in china will impact relations in the u.s. >> we're in london to talk about shipping trends. >>> plus what will obama do about the looming fiscal cliff? we'll have plenty of analysis from commentators. >> and we'll hear first from the cfo of aliance. but first day two data suggested growth is picking up and inflation is moderating meaning beijing may have more scope to ease if necessary. ppi industrial output and retail sales all came in better than forecast. eunice joins us from beijing. i'd hate to suggest this is quite good timing for this data. very convenient. >> what are you suggesting? a lot of people are saying that the numbers are showing the economy is bottoming out and a lot of people do use the numbers as a guideline at least. they're saying the investment figures were encouraging. looking relatively strong. the government hasn't put up of much money in the infrastructure projects, so that's part of the equation here. other part is retail and consumption side actually look pretty good. numbers came in at 14.5% growth and that beat expectations. a lot of th
>>> welcome to worldwide exchange. here are your headlines. the final set of numbers on the u.s. jobs market before the election are out in just a few hours forecasts calling for another month of modest but not stellar payroll growth. >> dow, nasdaq post strongest session since mid september. >> the rising cost of sandy, one major risk modeling firm now says the economic losses from the storm could reach $50 billion. >> and china steps insecurity ahead of next week's com you uhe nis party congress. even model airplanes have been grounded. if you're just joining us, very good morning to you. this is where we stand. we are at the moment dow 24 points below fair value. let's show you where we is an with you're feuropean stocks. cac down half a percent, ftse 100 down 0.2%. let's show you some individual stocks in focus. losses on friday hurt by a sector wide slump. equipment maker cutting back spending down as you can see merely 7%. rbs coming out with results this morning. this is the uk bank with a government owned majority and part nationalized lending reporting an increase in th
here. the u.s. allegatielections and redskins lost. >> we will mention the redskins indicator, but it's true whether the u.s., china, greece, eurozone itself would make for a big week, but combine them all together, in fact it's no wonder that markets are a little unnerved. >> coming up today, plenty to get through. we're at singapore where hundyui shares are down. >> and here in london, uk pmi data will be out. the question whether it will follow an upward trend. >> and china preparing for the once in a decade political handover. we'll take a lower look at the new leadership. >> when the redskins win or lose, it has predicted the top winner since 1980. there has been a notable expossession of 1984. >> although gore did win the popular vote but not the electoral college. >> in 2000. >> that's right. >> the all-important football -- i should say american football indicator here. it points towards a romney victory. >> besides all that, plenty corporate news. hsbcs has set aside an additional $800 million in the third quarter to deal with the u.s. anti-money laundering probe. that brings
, that trade officials see challenges ahead. most recently, over solar panels. the u.s. has approved steep trade tariffs, a move officials here say could backfire and cost american companies this market. >> translator: someone asked me are you in a trading war with the united states? i said no. i hope we can sit down and discuss and try our best not to get involved in trade war. but i must say when others tackle businesses, i have to protect our businesses. >> policymakers also attempted to ease concerns about a brewing debt crisis here. >> translator: the bad loans have been on the rise this year, mostly due to the difficulties in management of some industries. but the overall bank as a quality stable and the risk is under control. ratio almost the same as that at the beginning of the year, far lower of the world's major banks. >> regulators and bank executives said that chinese banks have spread the loans across several different sectors including steel and solar panels help to go mitigate the risk, however there is still widespread concerns that overcapacity in several of those industri
>>> these are your headlines. >> a tough start to a new month for equities as all through u.s. indexes snap a four month winning streak in the first day of trade after the market shut down. >> campaigning resumes as the northeast assesses the damage from super storm sandy. good and big earnings day for oil giants giants. shell sees a fall and exxonmobile due to report before the opening bell. >> growth recovery may be near. official october pmi bouncing back into expansion territory. >>> we're under way just one hour and an awful lot to to get to. >> new york city still struggling to right itself after monday's super storm. one stap he have the big apple will return, the mta will resume partial subway service on 14 lines. la guardia airport will also reopen at 7:00 a.m. with limited service. amtrak says it will try to restore service to penn station come friday. >> homes in bay ahead are seriously damaged or destroyed. president obama got a firsthand look with governor chris christie yesterday afternoon. >> and danielle lee joins us, she's in the town of toms river. and we kn
soared on cyber monday. and all bets are off. prediction market entrade says it can no longer accept u.s. customers as market regulators say its trades aren't legal. shanghai composite closed below 2,000 for the first time in three years. it comes at a time when plenty have been talking up chinese growth prospects for next year. so we'll get into that more later. but 1991 is the closing level. this the main one to watch across asia. the nikkei did manage to continue it rally adding about 0.4% as the yen weakens on comments this morning. forex, the dollar-yen one to watch, 82.19 is the level there. the aussie dollar doing a little bit abouter despite that weak number on the shanghai composite. sterling is flat. we'll get into that more later. and euro-dollar just barely higher today, we did see it rallying over the 1.30 mark last night. as we look at crude rallying adding a third of a percent. brent about a quarter of a percent. copper, we're adding 0.2%. 354 bucks on that contract. the real foe you can as we continue to examine whether china's economy is fundamentally hanging in there, c
in the u.s. yesterday. take a look at the bond wall here of course we have an italian auction coming up later and italy's ten year, below 4.5% this morning. so price rising. that yield falling. spain also benefiting. that yield down to 5.2%. bunds creeping back up to 1.4% level. let's key in on currency. the aussie dollar despite the broader risk-on attitude a weaker. dollar-yen moving higher 82.13. and the nikkei is adding to its string of gains throughout the month. euro-dollar rebounding off yesterday's trading session to add 0.1%. let's check in on how the asia trading session went overnight and for more, deidre wong morris joins us from singapore. >> well, it was a very good session over here, as well. headline driven. but a good session on the back of that optimism for fiscal cliff talk. all except this glaring spot of red. shanghai composite finishing lower for yet another session. it keeps falling further and further. doesn't seem that there is anything that policymakers or investors can do to lift sentiment in this market. different story in the hang seng, rebounding up about 1
after good gains yesterday. following strong moves in the u.s., as well. cac 40 down half a percent. weighed town by the moody's downgrade, although expected. and ibex done around 0.4%. french debt market, yields are up to 2.1%. treasuries slightly higher, but still below 6%. ten year bund yields slightly lower. so france is trading with the peripheral in that sense. euro-dollar, 1.2794 is where we stand, dipping slightly on on the back of the french downgrade. dollar-yen 81.26, but the yen has been down at acceseven mont lows. aussie dollar slightly weaker against the u.s. dollar. rba minutes suggesting that their policymakers consider further monetary easing may be appropriate. still to come, we'll be in athens and brussels. euro group reportedly close to signing off on the next tranche aid. i always wait until the last minute. can i still ship a gift in time for christmas? yeah, sure you can. great. where's your gift? uh... whew. [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. ship fedex express by december 22nd for christmas delivery. get on e-trade. set up a real plan. frank!
.1 million barrels a day. impact of hurricane sandy in the u.s., reduced, as well. crude oil supply dipped to a nine month low. so the demand being cut, patrick armstrong is where us, managing partner at investment managers. but that's clearly because of global weakness -- well, economic weakness in europe and hurricane impact. >> definitely. year over year, oil demand is up. we've had very weak economy in europe. not much growth in the united states. but i think that's the trend we'll be playing out for the next few years. >> oil 110 at the moment. is that a fair price? >> there's premium built in because of geopolitical risks. i think premium is probably justifiable. you look at wti at $23 discount to where breptd is. that's not sustainable in the long time, but given inventory levels, that will stay. >> do you keep your trade on oil? >> we have neutral position, but we're short the front month. respe respect. we make money by rolling the contracts the other way around. we're long oil in the 12 months forward rolling in to the 13th month and we end up with little more oil with that strat
advisers austan goolsbee on how the u.s. can avoid falling off the fiscal cliff. plus we'll take you live to tokyo with japan hit by election fever. the yen is falling as a repeated call for bold monetary easing. and we'll be live in new york 5:45 a.m. for a look at the u.s. retail sector. walmart and target getting set to release third quarter numbers. >>> chig that's ruling com uhe nus party has lifted the curtain. the unveiling seals so s xi jins rise. hu has seeded oig all powers and that's gives china's next leader a strong mandate. eunice has more for us this morning. it sounds like a pretty signature consolidation of power under xi. >> definitely is a consolidation of power. he'll get a very strong mandate as you had mentioned to run this country the way that he wants. he gets the three top titles, the most powerful are party chief, president as well as military commander. that is very significant because it allows him to have more control over his own agenda. when he went to meet the press this morning, he was looking very casual, looking a about folksy. when he was youtd lining t
for you. right. >>> research in motion may be losing another big u.s. customer. the national transportation safety board may switch from blackberries to apple's iphone. they have failed at inopportune times and the iphone would better link to the ipad. last month, the immigration and customs bureau switched to the iphone. you can see that we do have that stock price up about 8%, though, in u.s. markets yet. >>> still to come, i talk retail spending, online trends and holiday shopping with phillip green. plus, a rather well-known famous pop singing shopper. >> quality and it's comfortable. there you go. >> what's better than that? can i help you? i heard you guys can ship ground for less than the ups store. that's right. i've learned the only way to get a holiday deal is to camp out. you know we've been open all night. is this a trick to get my spot? [ male announcer ] break from the holiday stress. save on groupping at fedex office. >>> after nearly 12 hours of talks, the ecb and imf officials failed in their request to agree conditions -- officials did agree to meet again ne
the changes could mean. >>> welcome back. take a look at the u.s. equity futures. dow and s&p coming off their worst week since july 4th. you can see they are indicated higher, but maybe not the bounce you might have expected. the dow up 23. >> squawk sports new, texans beating the bears 13-6. foster finished with 102 yards rush and touchdown catch and texans intercepted cutler twice before knocking him out with a concussion. >> no comment about the jets? >> they lost. >> andrew, here's the deal. >> did you see rex ryan -- >> the giants won the super bowl last year. a lot of people have told him he's fat and he should shut up. he's not fat anymore. she just shut up. but sanchez, you brush up against him and the ball goes flying out. >> they've been going back and forth. >> when the giants are the defending the super bowl champions and they got their butts kicked by the bengals and the other game unbelievable is johnny football. texas a and m and alabama, that was unbelievable. alabama number one. texas a and m just joined the sec. and this guy johnny football, you just can't believe the
such a thing as a fiscal cliff like you have in the u.s. the old budget simply takes over up a new budget has been agreed on. so there is no financing disaster in the middle of it. the curious crux to this is if this old budget takes over because of the in-build qui sooif inflation factor in there, it's actually than the new budget they're debating right now, so all the countries pushing for the cut and even putting the threat on the veto on the table, they will actually chief the opposite. we'll keep on spending more even then with a sort of slide budget increase that the eu commission put on the table. and as to where the negotiations stand, i think at the moment the budget talks, pardon to be cynical, but political posturing on the various side than the actual effects in there. because if you look at the mound that the various countries put up into the budget, i think like 9 billion and that is already one of the biggest, we just save banks and sovereigns for hundreds of billions of bailout funds. so in terms of the actual money, this is absolute small cheese. >> absolutely is. silvia, for
saudi arabia? could an abundance of shale oil in the u.s. actually bring about energy independence by the year 2020? we drill for the truth straight ahead. and how rich is rich? the president wants higher taxes for americans earning more than $250,000 a year. is that fair? or should that number actually be $1 million? and could this be the key to resolving the looming fiscal cliff? that and a lot more is still to come on the "closing bell." >>> if a budget is not agreed upon to avoid the fiscal cliff, the average middle class family will pay $2,000 more in taxes. >> that's right. crunch time is upon us. the markets and economy will be held hostage until lawmakers do reach a deal on the fiscal cliff, presumably between now and the end of the year. >> eamon javers is breaking down the plan. over to you. >> just before the break, you and bill were debating whether or not it's too early to start getting sweaty palms about in fiscal cliff problem in washington. as a guy covering capitol hill for almost 20 years, i can tell you it's never too early to panic about what washington might do
timetable. if they don't see that it would be inconsistent with maintaining a aaa rating. the u.s. is on negative outlook. s&p already downgraded. >> i think that we all kind of remember what happened -- i think that the big worry on the left side would be i think listen, nothing happened. interest rates went down again. that's a scare tactic. i'll use a scare tactic. $600 billion in new taxes january 1. that's reality. >> unemployment going back to 9.1 if this happens. that's a number that gets your attention. the "times" does a nice piece about fix the debt group. groups of very large companies trying to weigh in on their own side with ads. i don't know if we have them right now. nike with a mock nike ad that says just fix it. mcdonald's saying i'm fixing it. >> home depot. we can fix it. >> that group raised a lot of money over the last year or so. $30 million, $40 million, more than you might have anticipated to mount this public campaign. >> dave is doing a lot of great things. ceo of honeywell. wants to put aside -- i don't know if he's a democrat or republican. i know he's
thought to the findings of the congressional committee on the culpability of jon corzine, the former u.s. senator with respect to the mf global collapse. >> i think it is no surprise that corzine gets all the blame there from republicans. they want to embarrass a guy who's got democratic connections. he was to blame. he made these big bets. the more interesting thing to me is the extent to which it shows that the s.e.c. and the cftc were completely at odds with one another, not in sync, and makes the argument strongly for merging those two. it does make the case more strongly for merging those two agencies. >> thank you very much, ben. we'll talk more about that congressional report in our next half-hour. simon? >>> tyler, in 53 minutes, a major news conference begins in which we're expecting an announcement that bp, british petroleum, is agreeing flou to pay the u.s. government a record fine for the disastrous oil spill in the gulf of mexico. what was it? two years ago. bertha coombs has details. bertha. >> that's right, simon. they will admit guilt and pay the largest fine ever by a u.
. u.s. equity futures should be interesting to look at temperature basically on hold. not sure what to do after yesterday. we'll talk more about the economy in a minute with david rosenburg. it was pretty clear yesterday that depending on how you wanted to spin it, could you say how do you do for another four years. i don't remember any euro news in the last six months no matter how bad it was, we didn't get it free handle. so there's more to it than just europe. >> it was the fiscal cliff, but also the financials got hit so hard. if it had been romney, the cliff would be less of a deal because they would stepped all of them. so now we know and we lettered it first hand yesterday. boehner said we're open to tax increase, but part of a bigger plan that involves spending cuts. dove did a bungee -- >> worst thing i ever did. >> but it goes down and then right back up. >> the worst part is you feel like you're connected on something, but don't. it's a free fall until the very he said and then he start to feel like i'm connected to something and it throws being back into the air. >> my q
army had been stolen from the ministry of defense by the very people the u.s. entrusted to run it. >> that's a lot of money. >> it's one of the biggest thefts in history, i think. >> most of the iraqi officials involved, including the former minister of defense, have skipped the country, but we found one of his deputies vacationing in paris. if you went back to baghdad, you'd be arrested. >> uh, no. nobody will arrest me. they will kill me. [ticking] [camera shutter snaps] >> these surveillance photos were taken by undercover police officers while they watched a team of seven south american thieves clean out an old navy store. >> shirts at $22.50, and they got the whole rack. >> when police moved in to make the arrest, they found enough merchandise to fill a room. all taken in less than an hour without anyone inside the store noticing a thing. [ticking] >> we have never seen a problem of this size and magnitude in world history. >> now hang on. in world history. >> there's more counterfeiting going on in china now than we've ever seen anywhere. >> name an american brand. any brand
economists and business leaders say could send the u.s. economy back into recession. here we have an interesting divide between wall street and washington. wall street seems to believe and you can take a look at the numbers on how the market has acted over the past year. wall street seems to believe that we'll avert this cliff. washington seems to be willing to drive over the cliff. >> i think there's -- i don't want to pick on the tea party per se. you can say if obama would suddenly give in on taxes. what i worry about is there are people who are ideological in the country and more focused on other issues than taxation and money. those people i think are very much out of sync with other people as we discovered last night from the election. they could care less about the fiscal cliff. i think some people want to go over the cliff. >> howard dean last night, sam on "squawk" a couple weeks ago saying maybe it's the best medicine for us is to drive over this thing, go into a recession, provide some bed for growth in the second half of the year. it's a gamble. >> $5 trillion in cuts.
economics. back here in the u.s., reports from walmart and target. at 8:30, we get weekly jobless claims. october consumer price index. and the november empire state survey. in corporate news, bp expected to pay a record u.s. criminal penalty and plead guilty to criminal misconduct in the 2010 deepwater horizon disaster, a plea deal reached with the department of justice reportedly may be announced as soon as today. reuters says bp will plead guilty in exchange for a waiver of future prosecution on the charges. bp says it is in discussions, but no final agreement has been reached yet. >> fun to have you here today. we do hope mr. kernen get better very soon. he's not normally sick. >> he never calls out sick. so he must be really sick. >> i think there's a flu going around. >> convenient for all of us. i took chips out of his bag yesterday and now i'm -- >> who is the guy sitting in his seat? >> can we get some lie sole over here? >> let's get back to the topic dominating the conversation from wall street to washington right now. of course it is the looming fiscal cliff. we have made it
territory. >> the head of mcdonald's u.s. business is out and jeff stratton will assume that business starting january 1. capped off last month with the first decline in monthly sales in about nine years. we'll begin with a teale of two retailers. walmart, revenues coming in short of forecast. -- as for target, the company posted third quarter earnings well above estimates, says it's poised for a strong fourth quarter, but walmart has some issues here, jim. they're talking countries including but not limited to brazil, china and some others too. >> yeah, i was thinking it bick, not brick. russia has been left out of the equation, foreign corrupt investigation, not a great number here at all. the stock had become a very big institutional favorite. if you recall during the mexican investigation, when "new york times" piece it, the stock was trading between 57 and 58. they were then overridden by a couple of really good, solid quarters. this was not the quarter that anyone was looking for. >> except for those who sold the stock over the last couple of weeks. i mean that stock has started
the course of the year. thankfully we've been very u.s.-centric in our investments over the course of 2011-2012. what we're preparing for now is looking again at the foreign markets in 2013. >> foreign markets meaning you want to be allocating money outside of the u.s. because of these issues in the u.s.? >> well, taking a look at some of the large global players here in the u.s. and outside, because as tax rates go up here in the united states, what we're about to see is probably the laugher curve in reverse. tax rates going up, revenues declining, creating a headwind for gdp. we're look at companies in the world for looking for global growth opportunity outside our borders. >> mark, let me get your standpoint on this. all year all we've been hearing about are dividend payers. why? because the yield -- there's no yield anywhere with rates where they are. everyone is searching for yield. they've found it in some companies that actually pay dividend, etf that pay dividend. there's a lot of those that have done so well. is this the time to avoid or sell those companies now or not? >> well, i
than the rest of the world. the u.s. is starting to show good trends. in an area that capital spending might be flat or plus 2%, enterprise is starting to show some signs of coming back outside of europe. commercial marketplace, which is what i watch the most, is also doing okay. so i would assume government's going to continue to be tough, especially the u.s. federal government. public sector around the world, okay. in the u.s., not counting federal. good in asia-pacific. still challenging in europe. >> we're looking at challenges in the u.s., obviously. i want to get your take on what's going on with with taxes and what your expectations are. first off, you've got 87% of total cash held overseas. is that right? >> that is probably pretty accurate. probably in excess of $40 billion. >> what are the pans to repay trait? is it worth taking a tax hit to invest domestically, or it's too expensi expensive, so you leave that money overseas until you see a change in tax code? >> we're at a cross roads. we clearly want to put this money to use in a way that benefits our shareholders. if we be
at much lower levels. jeff cox, i mentioned the $750 billion in loss. that's just the u.s. when you add in global markets, according to rich peterson at capital s&p, it's $1 trillion that's been taken out of market value just since the election. >> it's crazy. if you remember several months aer ago, i was on and we talked about technical levels in the market. i said 1350 is an important upside. we cleared that. now we're coming back down again. we're around 1353. if that doesn't hold as support rather than resistance, the next place between here and there, 1278 it the june lows. 1158 we were at last year. there's basically nothing between. where does that leave investors? the fed minutes came out yesterday with an indication there's still an appetite for easing. i think we're paving the way for a possible qe-4, especially pending what happens with the cliff. i think if we get this can kick thing, it's only going to add to uncertainty. a lot of folks are looking for alternatives, not stocks, high yield. they want something different. >> yeah, because they're afraid of equities. >> if you
's next. >>> if congress drifts u.s. economy off the fiscal cliff, the department of education's 2013 budget will be cut by over $4 billion with $256 million cut from the federal student aid program. and his new boss told him two things -- cook what you love, and save your money. joe doesn't know it yet, but he'll work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. he'll start investing early, he'll find some good people to help guide him, and he'll set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. it's just common sense. when you take a closer look... ...at the best schools in the world... ...you see they all have something very interesting in common. they have teachers... ...with a deeper knowledge of their subjects. as a result, their students achieve at a higher level. let's develop more stars in education. let's invest in our teachers... ...so they can inspire our students. let's solve this. >>> welcome back. i'm bertha coombs
ratings agencies going do, is there another downgrade of u.s. debt looming here and what would that do to financial markets. i want to sort of tell you a little bit about why you might be able to stop worrying and start to love these ratings agencies. the reason is the timeline of any downgrade that might come down the pike. starting with moody's. they're saying their rating on u.s. debt is likely to be maintained until the outlook of negotiations is clear. now fitch, they're likely to review their rating of u.s. debt in late 2013. late 2013. standard & poors poor's is saying it is a 1 in 3 chance of a downgrade over the coming two years. what do the ratings agencies want to see in order to avoid those kinds of downgrades? what they're saying is laid out specifically in their reports. moody's saying they want to see specific policies that produce a stabilization. they want a downward federal debt to gdp trend. fitch says they want an agreement on med yum term deficit reduction in 2013. standard and poor's is saying a medium term fiscal plan toward reducing general government debt. if y
jeff becker, ceo of ing u.s. investment management. ing is also the presenting sponsor at this weekend's new york city marathon. why don't we begin there. i realize that you run the investment management division, not all of ing in the americas, but you must have a perspective. a lot of new yorkers are very concerned -- some of them are angry -- that this marathon is going to go on as scheduled. did people from your company consult with the mayor, what did they say to him, to the extent you know, and do you support the decision? >> we do. the decision was taken by the mayor and the city of new york in consultation with the new york road runners. ing is the title sponsor. we support that decision. we're proud to be the title sponsor for the tenth year in a row. the marathon is a wonderful event for new york. it really represents the vitality and perseverance of new yorkers. it also has a tremendous economic benefit to the city of new york. the estimates are that annually, it gives annomi of $340 million to the city, and about $35 million to charities each year. >> it is a wonderful even
companies. he's one of the richest and most violent godfathers, known to u.s. law enforcement as the john gotti of japan. but there was one thing goto's power and money couldn't buy him in his homeland. he had liver disease and desperately needed a transplant. culturally, the japanese don't believe in organ donation, so to get a new liver, he needed to come to the u.s. for a yakuza, that should have been a problem, says mike cox. he was the chief of immigration and customs at the u.s. embassy in tokyo. >> we want to be a welcoming country in the united states, but certainly, we don't want the yakuza coming to the united states. >> because they're criminals? >> they have extensive criminal histories here in japan. they are members of criminal organizations. for both of those reasons, they would be ineligible to enter the united states. >> how did he get around that? according to jake adelstein's reporting, which we confirmed, tadamasa goto made a deal with the fbi. he offered to become a rat and inform on his yakuza brothers. >> goto said, "here's the deal. i need to get in the united stat
. blankfein writes "there is more than a trillion dollars of cash sitting on balance sheets of u.s. non-financial companies. certain will increase their capital expenditures currently at anemic levels, contributing to a virtuous cycle of jobs and growth." minimizing increases in marginal rates that could stifle risk taking and robust growth. he also stresses the importance of restoring confidence in public finance by implementing spending cuts and revenue increases. in the meantime, dallas fed president richard fisher tells cnbc that the central bank can't do much more to shelter the economy. >> we need to completely reboot tax policy and spending policy. if we have temporary fixes to the fiscal cliff, just push out the envelope of indecision until we have a sense of true direction, and it's time for our politicians to get their act together. >> fisher says he does not view the fed as a safety net. that is certainly a change of perception, one that congress is going to have to figure out pretty quickly along with the rest of washington. >> that it is. there's been a number of interviews
, this is fascinating. the fiscal cliff issue is a reason for many markets to move in the u.s. it's also big reason in europe and as it overlays several months going back to june with dow jones industrial average, you can see that our market was impacted more by the election but both charts are highly correlated and it's the fact that we are talking potential solutions to our fiscal cliff. melissa lee, back to you. >> thank you very much, rick santelli. just a note here, we're waiting for intel to begin trading again. a delayed open because of news that ceo will be retiring in may. we're awaiting that opening trade. 9:45 eastern time is our latest indication. meantime, will we see a massive correction even if there is a fiscal cliff deal? that's what david shulman is saying. find out why the senior economist is making such a bearish call. brewing job creation. what the folks at sam adams are doing to get food and beverage entrepreneurs a lift. stay tuned. [ male announcer ] introducing the new dell xps 12. part of a whole new line of tablets from dell. it's changing the conversation. ♪ well, havi
. the obama administration saying that china's currency remains significantly undervalued, but the u.s. treasury department is now stopping short of labeling the world's second biggest economy a currency manipulator. the white house is expected now to send the congress a multi-billion-dollar request on the recovery from superstorm sandy. the storm caused an estimated $71 billion in damages in new york and new jersey, and some congressional aides saying the request for funding would likely be at least $11 billion. the move comes as canada gets close to its decision on whether to approve the transaction. the energy companies say discussions with the committee are still in progress, and of course they had to file approval because they have extensive operations in the u.s. gulf of mexico. >>> "the wall street journal" reporting that virtue is emerging as the frontrunner to buy knight capital. they would possibly sell off parts of that business. finally, we can't get away from the story of twinkies. the bakers union of hostess brands wants a bankruptcy judge to appoint a chapter 11 trustee
for chapter 11. different news to digest. sales in the u.s., ford, gm, doing well. japanese automaker selling to china not doing so well. foreign automaker selling into china doing well at bmw. >> i think the suzuki thing mirrors what's happening at ford. >> i had an eye on one of their models. >> which one? >> the one with the four wheels. >> i have a harley in my garage. >> i'm not kidding. >> which garage is it by the way? do you even know? >> one of them is flooded. are you happy with that? >> is there a side car at leas.? >> i have tattoos all of the way up you just don't see them. suzuki blinking, ford, blinking, gm starting to blink. there's anti-globalization going on that we have to notice. some people say that i can't hack it in these markets. toyota was good. bmw was downbeat in terms of future. it wouldn't be something if everyone recognized what alcoa recognized. maybe it's too hard to be global. maybe it's too hard. go, suzuki was broken by the yen. it's hard to do business when you have these currency wars going on. >> how about kimberly getting out of diapers in europe? there'
time in nearly a decade and the u.s. underperforming. any doubt now that rivals are stealing share? >> retailers like macy's finally quantifying the effect of hurricane sandy. walmart kicking off black friday earlier than ever. we start this morning with the markets looking to bounce back from yesterday's selloff and nearly 1313 drop in the dow. europe on wall street's radar after the ecb and bank of england kept key rates unchanged. draghi holding a press conference right now saying he sees economic rekafr ri remaining weak and reforms are crucial to boosting growth potential on top of greece passing an unpopular package of austerity measures on wednesday and necessary for greece to receive another round of international financial aid. china's ruling communist party congress con vealing today in a leadership change. so much to digest overseas, jim. what came out of the ecb is expected. came out of greece seems to be largely expected. but spain still resisting. a bailout. that's trouble. >> i know. every day the crucial -- that's the crucial link. you have to give them the good loa
at the ex-have a dax, up 5%. ftse up nearly 4% in the last week on top of pretty good gains for the u.s. markets as you know between 3% and 4%, as well. so no surprise perhaps today that we're a little bit weaker on the back of those gains. 8:2 just about decliners outpacing advancers. this is how it translates. ftse 100 down half a percent. xetra dax up a quarter. ibex down about half of 1%. a number of things going on in politics as ever. we had regional elections in spain. yields you can see slightly higher, but still well below 6%. now, these regional elections fairly important because we know catalonia has been pushing on on independence. now, it looks less likely we'll get that referendum, but not because people in catalonia are any less eager on a separatist movement. just that they didn't vote for the main guy who is proposing it. they voted for competitor party which is makes it slightly harder in the short term for them possibly to get a referendum going. so eases the pressure in the short term but means there is still a longer term problem there. catalonia is one of those reg
. china was down. they did have tremendously difficult comparisons. u.s. was also weaker. this was just not a good quarter. >> that's true. >> so ubs goes to neutral and trims estimates and cuts price target from 84 to 73. they say that deceleration is going into q-2. >> yum we're not that crazy about. chipotle. panera is a standout. this has been a terrific group. it lost its luster. entire quick serve contingent has become a place that people are worried about with the exception of highest value. panera. it's a decent stock. >> what's also surprising about what young came out with last month is they were talking about china. they weren't overly cautious about china. at the same time we've been getting better and better data points when it comes to china. economic data has been in fact turning. we haven't seen the stock market in china join and now we're not seeing it in yum. yum had once been the big multinational china play. if yum can't make it work, what other companies will we start to look at? will we look at nike or another multinational with a decent amount of growth from sales
that the u.s. doesn't go into a recession? >> well, first i want to say the metaphor fiscal cliff is probably the wrong one. you step off a cliff, that's your last step. for many politicians, the real metaphor is it's a slope. they gradually go into these tax increases and spending cuts. they feel they can turn around and walk back up the slope, retroactively reverse the changes. in that circumstance, in that scenario, it creates a lot of uncertainty for businesses and for taxpayers. what will our taxes be next year? how are we going to make some plans for our business or personal finances? it's that uncertainty that's going to, i think, have adverse effects for the economy. >> okay. that makes a lot of sense. michael jones, how do you want to invest here with all this? >> i think there are times when the market is really simple. don't fight the fed. you certainly don't want to fight the fed when they've got the ecb, the bank of japan, the people's bank of china, and virtually every other central bank on their side. you've had unprecedentedly aggressive monetary stimulus. we have open-ended c
on the very, very decent and accelerating fundamentals of the u.s. economy. >> maybe, and that's just today, right, ron? >> been since last week. >> we were talking about the market really being so sensitive to any rhetoric out of washington. >> i'm not saying it's not hostage to headlines. we'll get intraday volatility. from the monday before thank giving until now, we have effectively wiped out the losses we saw post-election. >> rick, how do you see it? market complacency, too much angst, are we overthinking this? how do you read the market right now? >> i think that the low volume movements of the equity markets aren't really telling you any information. there's no way even in aggregate a market could decide what's going on in harry reid or john boehner's brain in anything is going on in begin with. if you look at treasuries overlaid on top of equities, until mr. boehner's comments, the treasuries have taken the big picture on all of this. they're not going anywhere fast. fiscal cliff is important, but there's a lot of issues for the next several years that are going to be important to
's going on in defense. also, regardless of the fiscal cliff there's cuts. the u.s. government is the world's biggest buyer of software associated with the running of any kind of government. that's another kind of corollary here. a big comment from a lot of people in the defense industry about that yesterday. i think they're the first company to come out and make realistic expectations of what will happen in the next couple of years. back to you. >> okay. thank you. dave cote is the head of the curve on all of this. let's shift to bonds and dollar. rick santelli at the cme group in chicago. rick? >> thank you, jim. everyone is excited about good housing numbers. everybody but the fixed income market. everybody but the equity market. i know there's an hp issue here. however, let's look at the charts. let's put up a two-day chart of tens. clearly you can see we're up about a basis point on the day. if you look on the right side of the chart and look around 8:30 eastern, you can't pick out that we had a good housing number. if you really switch this around a bit, you look at the shorter mature
relatively modest in the u.s. and that's reflected in the jobs number. so this is an encouraging month but you never want to make too much out of any one month. >> i was surprised at the numbers. ed, what do you think? >> i think there are good things that each candidate can take out of it. obviously the fact that the unemployment rate ticked up is something that governor romney will emphasize, it's higher than when the president took office. that's the headline number. but i agree with austan, the fact you had 171,000 jobs this month and i would even add to that, it's not just this month, it's the trend for the past couple of months is higher, about 170,000 for the past couple of months. and that's a good sign. the one thing i would say is that while that's better than the average, the number of jobs created per month since the turnaround in early 2010 has been about 140,000 per month. this is a little bit better than that. the one disadvantage of it is that you need about 119,000 per month just to keep pace with population growth. what this means is that even with 170, you're adding
cuts that threaten to send the u.s. almost off a fiscal cliff. a sum met set for friday. i like the "new york times." democrats like a romney idea. >> did you see paul ryan's comment? >> no. but i got my button back on because i'm -- i'm going to tell that you rise above is kind of like a rorschach thing. because for me, rise above means democrats rising above the obsession with rates and realizing broadening the bates is better -- >> it means coming together. >> that is a way of coming together. you're raising revenue. your only way is if the republicans say yes -- >> no, that is not true. my way is anyway you come up with an agreement is a great way. you're only looking from one side of the aisle. >> but they'll never agree to raising rates about sfw. >> i will give you that it is a error sha rorschach test, but i want you to actually cut some things and i want you to deal with expenditures. >> you have the same house that said no to 39.6 on the high he said. but a way of raising revenue will spur growth -- they're coming around to the correct version right here. >> what about
. >> but the question is what your long-term outlook is. if you're betting against u.s. growth, betting against -- or betting there will be a huge issues in the coming years on these -- on the deficit issue, you may want to keep it off the table. >>> there's a third area there. i don't talk to anybody, steve or our guest, who doesn't think the u.s. can easily ramp up growth. the real discussion i don't think is the true u.s. economy. i thinkist the moguling being throw in front of it, our self-inflected issues, you know, last time around we sequestration. are we going to have sequestration 2? of course we'll put a band-aid, but we need leverage to have reform predicated to surrender on the band-aid. >>> we've got to go, guys. i've got to go with this. we've got to move on. this is the last hour of trading, so we've got to move here. thank you for your thoughts today. steve, thank you, you're voting on a committee of politicians. i find hope in that somehow. >> yeah. you're in the hopeful camp. >> hoping at the last moment they will do the right thing. >> was that a pig that just flew by? the ma
. it is all about the u.s. this week. the tone for the most part has been negative this morning as you can judge from the red behind me. yes the uk pmi data came in weak, points to the country potentially in contraction territory despite the better gdp figures. some concern about greece. investors seem to be standing on the sidelines until a lot of these issues are resolved or at least there's more clarity. this follows reports over the weekend that some of the ways in which spanish banks borrow at cheap rates may not have been legal. the ecb says it's exploring the issue. one of the companies weighing on the foot city, hsbc which has said it is provisioning $1.5 billion against the laundering charges. group profit slightly disappointed investors. shares down 1.4% as a result the there. but that's really it in terms of the major corporate news. ubs going through a bit of a shake up. the bond wall expresses more of the mood we're seeing on the eve of the u.s. elections here. it's a rotation out of the periphery into the core. the gilts are benefiting. spain, italy seeing yields a little hig
's number two. third one of course is u.s. election. this is where some of the problems is. have you noticed german bonds today moving on the upside rather aggressively. u.s. bonds moving on the upside. that's all this stalemate concerns out here. that's all i heard this morning. that's all i heard over the weekend. the likely outcome is a stalemate no matter who wins on the fiscal cliff. obama will have to compromise. romney will have to compromise. what's the best hope for the industry and business right now? best hope is a last-minute deal to postpone tax cuts for yet another year, which could in fact go into the first quarter of negotiations. some of the people are more optimistic it will happen before that. some are not. that's why we get bonds moving to the upside right now. jim, i noticed that you mentioned the deal this morning with kbw. it's a symptom of what's going on in the friday overall. this was the big topic of the day. those who didn't hear, they are buying kbw for no premium. we're talking 6% premium. the stock was 16. offering 17 and change. that's no premium out there. th
? >> i'm, today, tomorrow -- today here, tomorrow there -- i'm going to short more bonds, more u.s. government bonds. i'm going to buy more commodities, buy metals, base metals and precious metals. looks to me like the money printing is going to run amok now. and the spending is going to run amok now. again, larry, i'm not saying this is good for the world, it's not good for anybody. this is what's going to go on. i have to invest based on what's happening, not on what i would like. >> mr. rodgers, rick santelli here. what about europe? i don't disagree with your notion you want to sell treasuries. i do disagree treasuries were moving to the downside because of a barack win. most of the traders in chicago were definitely thinking mitt was going to win. they were buying puts on the treasuries. they were buying calls on the s&ps. my question to you is pure and simple. the world is lending us money at rates much too cheap. i wouldn't lend uncle sam my money for ten years for 170 basis points but the european issue continues to push more investors into treasuries. when do you think tha
.com. >>> breaking news on an iranian fighter plane attacking a u.s. drone. it happened before election day. why are we just learning about this now? today? >>> but before we go to break, don't forget free market capitalism is the best path to prosperi prosperity. maybe there is going to be some progress in washington. i have an open mind. i'm kudlow. we'll be right back. [ female announcer ] want to spend less and retire with more? at e-trade, our free online tools and retirement specialists can help you build a personalized plan and execute it with a wide range of low cost investments. get a great plan and low cost investments at e-trade. >>> we are more breaking news tonight. u.s. defense officials confirm today that iranian fighter planes fired and missed at a u.s. drone. that was just days before election day. so why are we learning about it mow for the first time? joining me, syndicated radio talk show host, john bachelor. >> good evening, larry. >> good evening. they fired at one of our unmanned drones. why didn't we fire back? why didn't we take some retaliatory action? are we just patsy
of a nearly 5% selloff just since the election. so you say there's opportunities in the u.s. what are you hearing from your companies in terms of how they're going to adjust their business? >> well, i think, you know, that's one of the reasons that unemployment still remains high in the united states. we have uncertainty in tax policy. we have uncertainty in regulatory policies. so if you take from the first quarter of 2009 to the current date, revenue growth in the united states has been 35%. greater than it was between 1990 and 2007. >> right. >> that should have translated into 30,000 more jobs per month during this period of time. but it hasn't because business hasn't been willing to go out and hire people, bring full-time people on board because they don't know what the laws that are going to govern them from a regulatory standpoint, and they don't know what tax policy is going to be. >> why would you add heads to the payroll when you have no clarity on what your tax rate is going to be. what fees are involved in those agencies. >> right. >> so that's the issue. so would you be poise
, it really wasn't. as a i talk, you can look at ten-year for every major developed economy. the u.s., the germans, the french, the u.k., the japanese. month to date, the patterns are almost all die dent call. with all these variables, elections, mideast, fiscal cliff, it seems as though there's only so much flight to safety bid you can push into the marketplace. some traders say that's why you didn't notice. in the old days, it would make a difference. yields are already most accommodative from a nervousness standpoint. i will tell you it was the number one conversation. and even though it really isn't about oil, that's the market everybody is trading to of course kind of play the headlines. >> michael, how about you? how does this impact the way you're allocating capital? >> well, as you know, our strategy is about 45% in cash while the prefunctory -- what we'll have left to boost us higher. i think the market does go higher. here's why. you have $85 billion each month from the federal reserve as far as balance sheet expansion. you have negative real interest rates that will be get
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